The News-Sentinel and News Channel 15 contracted with Research 2000, a nonpartisan polling firm based in Maryland, to conduct a pre-election survey in the 3rd Congressional District, which includes Fort Wayne. The polling company completed phone interviews with 600 likely voters, 48 percent men and 52 percent women, Oct. 16-18. Thirty percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 33 percent as Republicans and 37 percent as “other.” The survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.



John McCain has acknowledged on more than one occasion that the economy is not his strongest issue.

But his self-professed discomfort with the issue that likely northeast Indiana voters overwhelmingly consider the most important has not kept the Republican presidential candidate from building a commanding lead over Democratic opponent Barack Obama, according to a News-Sentinel/News Channel 15 poll.

With most polls last week showing Obama in the lead - up by 7.1 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics national average - McCain's 15-point lead in the 3rd Congressional District surprised party leaders and independent analysts alike.

“It just shows that northeast Indiana is more conservative than I thought, and that voters here will stay with the GOP independent of the issues,” said James Lutz, chairman of the political science department at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne.

“And I'm a bit surprised voters think McCain would do a better job on the economy, when the national trend is the opposite. Republicans controlled the White House and Congress for six years, but (to voters) the subliminal message is like, ‘the Republicans messed it up, but Democrats would mess it up even worse.'”

Fifty-three percent of all likely voters in the local poll supported McCain, 38 percent Obama and 3 percent favored other candidates. Even accounting for a margin of error of 4 percentage points and the 6 percent of the voters who remain undecided, McCain would retain a substantial lead.

“We're encouraged to see that voters in the 3rd district are voicing their support for John McCain,” said Jennifer Hallowell, McCain's regional campaign manager. “There are fundamental differences between Barack Obama, who wants Hoosiers to put all their faith in government and take more of their money to grow it, and John McCain, who puts his faith in Hoosiers and Americans to decide best how to spend their money.”

Jonathan Swain, Indiana communications director for the Obama campaign, said, “We feel confident about our position going into the final days. We've worked hard to put this state in play, and statewide polls show the race in Indiana is a dead heat. Over the next several days, we will continue to work hard to share Barack Obama's plans for helping Hoosiers deal with the tough economic challenges they are facing.”

Those economic challenges make McCain's lead especially noteworthy, because issues normally perceived to be Republican strong points have been deemed relatively unimportant by voters.

When asked to name the issue that will most determine their choice of president, respondents named the economy (32 percent), taxes/spending (12 percent) and gas/energy costs (11 percent) - pocketbook issues that together represent the priorities of 55 percent of voters.

By contrast, moral issues/gay marriage and the war on terror were each named just 10 percent of the time, and immigration 9 percent.

McCain's wide lead in the poll largely evaporated, however, when voters were asked which candidate they trust more to handle the economy, which was marked by sharp market downtowns shortly before the poll was taken. Forty-one percent said they trust McCain more, compared with 39 percent for Obama and 20 percent not sure.

Conversely, 53 percent said they trust McCain more to handle the war in Iraq, compared with 40 percent for Obama and just 7 percent unsure.

“It's funny how the war in Iraq has dropped off the radar,” said Allen County Democratic spokesman Kevin Knuth said.

“That's because of our success in Iraq,” countered Allen County Republican Chairman Steve Shine. “These results are wonderful, and I'm relieved. Not because support for Obama is so deep, but because our market has been bombarded with Obama commercials and visits by him and his wife. But we have to keep moving, because any lead can evaporate.”

Saturday's visit by vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin was a big step in that direction, Shine added.

Knuth, former Democratic Party chairman, said he doubts McCain's 15-point lead, in part because of other contradictory polls and in part because “of 12,000 new registrations in Allen County; 9,000 were turned in by the Obama campaign.”

The poll illustrates McCain's advantage over Obama in ways that are more subtle, but no less important to the eventual outcome.

Fifty-five percent of voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, for example, compared with 42 percent for Obama. Just 38 percent think unfavorably of McCain, compared with 45 percent for Obama - a figure higher than his “favorable” rating.

McCain is favored by 57 percent of men and 49 percent of women, compared with 38 percent and 37 percent, respectively, for Obama.

McCain does better with independents and members of the opposite party, too, supported by 88 percent of Republicans, 14 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents. Obama is supported by 79 percent of fellow Democrats and 36 percent of independents, but just 4 percent of Republicans.

“Issues are always in flux, and it's not just the economy (earning support for McCain),” Shine said. “You have to look at the whole mettle of the person. Northeast Indiana's moderate-to-conservative beliefs don't waver, even with the greatest media onslaught in history.”

Ironically, the very ads and issues that serve Obama well in many other parts of the country - his proposals for expensive new federal programs, for example - may be holding him back in this and other traditionally conservative areas, Lutz said. “Obama saying he wants to ‘redistribute the wealth' probably won't be popular in Indiana,” he added.

For that reason, Lutz doubts Obama can make up a 15-point deficit in the next week - if the poll is accurate, that is.

Shine and Knuth both acknowledge changes in technology complicate polling. Because of increased use of cell phones, for example, younger voters are sometimes underrepresented in samples - voters who may be more Democratic than the population at large.

Lutz, meanwhile, suspects Obama's status as the first African American to be nominated for president may also be skewing the results in McCain's favor. But the opposite could be true, too: When Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley ran for governor in 1982, he was ahead in many polls but ultimately lost - a defeat many attributed to the fact that voters were reluctant to tell pollsters they favored another candidate for fear of being called racists.

Some analysts say this so-called “Bradley Effect” can overestimate support for minority candidates by about 5 percentage points.

Despite what this and other polls say between now and Nov. 4, both Shine and Knuth said their parties will work to energize supporters and make sure they get to the polls. “The McCain campaign will ensure that Hoosiers across the state know the stark differences in the candidates' economic philosophies,” Hallowell said.

Knuth, meanwhile, said the fact that Obama had to fight so hard against Hillary Clinton in the Indiana primary equips him to narrow the gap, since it gave him a campaign presence in Indiana that McCain has yet to match.

“I've always said that a poll is just a snapshot,” he said. “Who knows what will happen Election Day?”